Syrian rebels reject U.S.-Russia deal
Now comes the real test. Of Syria's sincerity.
Of Russia's resolve. Of America's gamble.
Over the weekend, the U.S. and Russia hashed out a
new plan to get Syria to give up control of its chemical
weapons. Syria says it welcomes the plan.
But will the war-torn country actually hand over of the
world's biggest stockpile of chemical weapons? Or is
this just a delay tactic to get the world off its back? And
if President Bashar al-Assad doesn't comply, what next?
We'll find out in the coming days. Syria has until next
week to provide a full list of all its chemical weapons,
and where it's storing them. Today, we hear from a
U.N. report on whether poison gas was used in an
attack on Damascus suburbs on August 21. But here's
the hitch: the report won't say who used it -- the
regime or the rebels.
As you begin your first day back at work after the
weekend, here's a Q&A that'll bring you up to speed on
what happens next.
What does the deal say?
The four-page "Framework for Elimination
of Syrian Chemical Weapons" basically
says:
-- Within one week, Syria must submit a
full list of its chemical weapons stockpile.
-- By November, international inspectors
must be on the ground in the country.
-- Before the end of November, the
inspectors should complete their initial
survey of the weapons sites.
-- Also before the end of November, all
production and mixing or filling
equipment must be destroyed.
-- By the middle of next year, all chemical
weapons material must be destroyed.
That's quite ambitious. Will it have
any teeth once the U.N. weighs in?
It's true that plans often get watered
down at the U.N. This one goes to
Security Council members as early as
today. There, members will craft a
resolution that'll keep the process under
review and allow the U.N. to consider the
use of force if Syria fails to comply. "If the
Assad regime believes that this is not enforceable, then
they will play games," U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry
said Monday. French President Francois Hollande has
said that the council might vote on it by the end of the
week.
'Use of force'? Hasn't Russia consistently said
that's a no-go?
Yes, and it's still standing firm on that. So what happens
if Syria doesn't comply? More on that below.
Why Russia, Iran and China have Syria's back
Isn't there big news coming today?
A long-awaited report by U.N. weapons inspectors will
be released today, but it'll probably only confirm what
many already suspect -- that chemical weapons were
used near Damascus on August 21. The United States
says more than 1,400 people, including children, were
gassed to death in that attack. And that incident set off
the flurry of events that has brought us to this point
today. But what the U.N. report won't say is this: Who
was behind the attack -- the regime or the rebels?
So, when is the first real test of Syria's sincerity?
Next week. The regime has until then to provide its full
list: How big is its stockpile, what kinds are they, and
where are they stored.
How big is the stash?
U.S. intelligence believes Syria has about 1,000 metric
tons of chemical weapons, most of it sarin and VX
stored as unmixed components, Kerry said last week.
Sarin and VX are nerve gases that can cause
convulsions, paralysis, respiratory failure or death. And
they may be stored in some 50 different sites, says the
International Institute for Counter-Terrorism in Israel.
How many inspectors will it take to get rid of it
all?
No one's really sure. The Russian-U.S. plan doesn't
specify a number. It says the inspectors will come from
the Organisation for the Prohibition of Chemical
Weapons , and the U.N. may have a role. However,
David Kay, a former U.N. and U.S. weapons inspector,
thinks it'll take 500 to 1,000 people just to secure the
sites.
What are the major challenges?
Where do we begin? First off, there's a civil war going
on. No one's brought up if troops will be needed to
protect the inspectors as they go about their work.
Then there's the matter of where the weapons will be
taken, and how.
The Russian-U.S. plan mentioned the possibility of
collecting and destroying them in the coastal area of
Syria, which is under government control. But who
would protect the convoys headed there? Will the
regime fully cooperate? And will rebels agree to a
ceasefire as the weapons are being moved?
The U.S. and Russia say they're working on the details.
They say they'll submit something in the next few days.
Given these mammoth challenges, how feasible is
it that all stockpiles can be destroyed by
mid-2014?
That's a question worth asking. To put things in
perspective, U.N. inspectors who were searching for
Saddam Hussein's stocks of chemical weapons criss-
crossed Iraq for seven years in the 1990s. They had
unrestricted freedom of movement. And even though
they were dealing with an obstructive regime, at least
they were not trying to work during a war.
How current is our intelligence about where these
sites are? What if Syria's moved its stash?
In a way, Syria is on the honor system, especially since
both U.S. officials and Syrian rebels suspect the regime
has been moving around parts of its stockpile."I think
we may know where they were, and we may know
where maybe a majority are now," Kay says. "But look,
it's going to be up to the Syrians to disclose where they
are and the amounts that they have."
Last week, Gen. Salim Idriss, head of the rebel Free
Syrian Army, said he had information that the regime
has started to move chemical weapons and materials
into Lebanon and Iraq. Iraq denied the allegation,
calling it "cheap propaganda."
So, the ball's in Syria's court -- so to speak. What if
it doesn't comply?
Remember that resolution we talked about earlier that
the Security Council is trying to draft? It allows for use
of force to compel Syria to cooperate.
But Russia's against that, right?
Yes, Russia has veto power. And it's consistently said it
won't stand for military strikes on its ally Syria.
In that case, what happens?
The U.S. might go it alone. That option's not off the
table. "If diplomacy fails, the United States remains
prepared to act," President Barack Obama has said.
Kerry reiterated the point Monday: "The military option
is still on the table."
Finally, is the situation on the ground any better?
Unfortunately, no. The bloodshed hasn't stopped for a
day. At least 91 people were killed across Syria on
Sunday, including six children, the opposition group
Local Coordination Committees of Syria said. CNN
cannot independently verify daily death tolls, but the
United Nations says more than 100,000 people have
been killed in Syria since 2011.
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