independents favor Hillary Clinton for president.
A new CNN poll confirms that we're
witnessing a quiet reversal in the character of our two
major parties.
Traditionally, Republicans have always coalesced around
the conventional wisdom front-runner for president.
Conservatives respect structure, order and party brand
names. Not for nothing was the name Nixon, Bush or
Dole on the GOP presidential ticket from 1952 to 2004.
In contrast, Democrats have favored the presidential
candidate with the hot hand, rising from obscurity to
the White House -- think Jimmy Carter, Bill Clinton and
Barack Obama.
But a fresh-out-of-the-oven CNN
presidential poll shows a fractured GOP
field of newcomers with no clear front-
runner while the Democrats have given an
unprecedented lead to a brand name of
their own: Hillary Clinton.
Yes, it is pathetically early to be projecting
on the 2016 presidential campaign.
Predictive capacity hovers somewhere
near zero, and time fixated on polls would be
productively used thinking about the 2014 midterms or
the fights over the debt ceiling looming over our
divided, dysfunctional Congress.
But as a snapshot of the underlying dynamics driving
the two parties, this new poll is worth a look.
On the GOP side of the aisle, New Jersey Gov. Chris
Christie narrowly leads the fractured field at 17%, one
point above Rep. Paul Ryan, best known as Mitt
Romney's vice presidential running mate. In the old
days, the previous vice presidential nominee would be
the future favorite. But that doesn't seem to be the case
for Ryan, who emerged from the 2012 presidential race
arguably damaged by his association with the Romney
campaign.
Traditionally, the governor of blue state New Jersey
wouldn't be on the GOP radar at all, but Christie --
cruising to a landslide re-election -- seems to be the
exception to this and other rules.
Next on the list is Rand Paul, the scion of
an outsider libertarian movement sparked
by his dad's multiple runs for president.
But the compelling and controversial one-
time eye doctor is a first-term senator
from Kentucky, far from your typical
presidential timber.
Perhaps most interesting is the second tier
of GOP candidates. Jeb Bush seems settled
in at 10%, despite brand name and
legendary brand loyalty. Two Hispanic
senate Republicans, Marco Rubio and Ted
Cruz, come in next at 9% and 7%
respectively. And then, at the bottom of
the barrel, come two 2012 aspirants:
Texas Gov. Rick Perry and former
Pennsylvania Sen. Rick Santorum.
Far from being strengthened by their 2012
campaigns, these two candidates seem
weakened by the experience. Rick Perry's
"oops" heard round the world still
resonates while Santorum's strident social
conservatism doesn't seem to be taken
seriously by 95% of the party faithful.
Strange days.
The real news is on the Democratic side. Hillary Clinton
has accumulated a towering 55 percentage point lead
over her next closest competitor, Vice President Joe
Biden, who is at 10% and doesn't exactly lack name
recognition.
Below Biden are first-term Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth
Warren at 7%, New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo at 6%
and Maryland Gov. Martin O'Malley -- perhaps the most
openly ambitious of the bunch -- at 2%.
Clinton's dominance illustrates an interesting dynamic.
Six years ago, she was a far more polarizing figure
among Democrats (and independents). Today, after her
service as secretary of state, she seems more qualified
and less polarizing, transcending her association with
the culture of wars concurrent with Bubba's two terms
in office.
Tough and experienced, Clinton is now positioned as a
candidate who rivals Obama's 2007 surge. She will also
be positioned as the candidate of the 51%, compelling
to women of all ages and even possibly competitive
among Republican women in this incarnation.
Uncle Joe Biden is well liked by the rank and file, but
there doesn't seem to be much of a stampede to put
him on the top of the ticket. Warren's strength comes
from fascination with the new and represents the
growing strength of the liberal base in the party. And
while successful governors like Cuomo and O'Malley
have earned the right to be taken seriously as
presidential candidates, the party faithful don't seem to
be much interested in buying what they are selling at
the moment.
If Clinton does not run for some reason, Democrats will
quickly wake up to the awkward fact that they have
almost no depth of the bench after two Obama terms.
So there you have it: Democrats are behaving like
Republicans, falling in line behind the big brand name
dominating a race that is still three years away. And
Republicans are behaving like Democrats, putting
forward a fractured field with no clear front-runners
but elevating a New Jersey governor, a Wisconsin
congressman and a Kentucky senator to the front of the
pack.
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